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Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz The U.
Om BNP stiger med 3,2 procent och produktiviteten samtidigt ökar med 2,2 procent och antalet personer i arbetskraften ökar med 0,5 procent minskar arbetslösheten med 0,5 procentenheter.
Så måste det helt enkelt vara.
Skulle invandrarna vara lika fysiskt påtagliga och närvarande i Stockholm som ute i landet hade SD förmodligen redan varit Sveriges största parti.
El-Erian, Bloomberg 4 January 2018 Wage growth has remained rather anemic, even in the context of indicators of labor shortages.
In addition,at 62.
We are starting only slowly to comprehend the extent to which the nature of work is in the process of changing, particularly as innovations enable new ways of doing things while outmoding others, sometimes quite abruptly.
That is two percentage points below the 2007 rate, and four percentage points — some 5m missing jobs — below the 2000 peak.
Martin Sandbu 8 August 2018 It is the paricipation rate, Stupid According to the BLS, the US economy generated a miniscule 11,000 jobs in the month of December.
The participation rate, which has been driven lower by forces such as an ageing population, ticked up to 62.
The U-6 measure of unemployment — which includes individuals marginally attached to the labour force and those working part time because they cannot find a full-time post — was unchanged at 9.
Two up-to-date pictures of US labor market slack September 1st, 2018 by JB and Ben Spielberg Wage growth is nowhere near strong enough to call for rate hikes EPI's Working Economics Blog ELISE GOULD, EPI'S WORKING ECONOMICS BLOG JUN.
Nominal wage growth continues to be far below target.
Read more: US hiring slows, adding 126,000 jobs in March BBC 3 April 2018 Additionally, the job statistics for January and February were revised down by a combined 69,000 jobs.
Many Americans are out of the labour force, due in part to the large number of so-called "baby boomers" who are reaching retirement age.
In March, only 62.
Cheaper gasoline and past job growth have not yet boosted consumer spending, and modest wage gains have burdened the US economy since the Great Recession ended nearly six years ago.
The 1980 recession took 44 months from the peak to recover; this one took 77 months.
Plus, betting world vacancies are the people who have given up looking for work altogether or are just periodically doing so.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz The U.
The speech may come as a bit newsier than the market expected.
Yellen expanded on the reasons she believes there are significant more people willing and capable to filling a job than there are jobs for them.
The St Louis Federal Reserve — the last bastion of monetary orthodoxy in the Fed family — has just published a paper that basically deems quantitative easing to be useless.
John Maynard Keynes was right all along.
While their ranks have thinned 53% from a record 6.
Unemployment tends to rise when GDP growth falls below about 2.
BBC, 30 December 2018 Former President George W Bush introduced the assistance plan in 2008 at the start of the recession.
The participation rate, which indicates the share of working-age people in the labor force, increased to 63 percent in November.
A month earlier it fell to 62.
Bloomberg 6 December 2018 The percentage of the population in the US labour force fell to its lowest level since August 1978, at 63.
The lower number of Americans looking for work drove the unemployment rate down from 7.
Financial Times, September 6, 2018 Nice graph An important graph is the employment-population ratio for the key working age group: 25 to 54 years old.
In the earlier period the employment-population ratio for this group was trending up as women joined the labor force.
The ratio has been mostly moving sideways since the early '90s, with ups and downs related to the business cycle.
The participation rate for this group declined to 81.
The decline in the participation rate for this age group is probably mostly due to economic weakness as opposed to demographics and this suggests the labor market is still very weak.
Yes, the unemployment rate has fallen.
But almost the entire reason it has fallen is the drop in the number of people in the labor force.
The share of adult Americans with jobs is essentially unchanged over the last three years.
David Leonhardt, New York Times, August 27, 2018 In previous postwar recoveries, the number of jobs was about 7 percent above its previous peak by this point, on average.
In other words, if this had been a typical recession and recovery, the U.
In fact, there are now three million fewer jobs.
But perhaps even more improbably, it has finally?
This is a bad employment report.
Twenty years from now, young whippersnapper economic historians will come to interview me.
They will ask: "Why don't you think Ben Bernanke was the worst Fed Chair since the Great Depression.?
What answer am I going to be able to give?
Brad deLong 5 April 2018 88 000 nya jobb skapades i mars i USA USA behöver över 200 000 nya jobb varje månad bara för att hålla jämna steg med befolkningsutvecklingen Av befolkningen ingår nu bara 63,3 procent i arbetskraften.
Den sämsta siffran sedan 1979 DANIEL KEDERSTEDT, SvD 5 april 2018 Närmare en halv miljon människor har övergett arbetskraften och därmed exkluderas ur beräkningarna.
Av befolkningen ingår nu bara 63,3 procent i arbetskraften.
Det är ned från 63,5 procent en månad tidigare — och den sämsta siffran sedan 1979.
Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz The U.
BRADFORD DELONG University of California-Berkeley Panelists: CARLO COTTARELLI International Monetary FundPAUL KRUGMAN Princeton UniversityVALERIE A.
RAMEY University of California-San DiegoHARALD UHLIG University of Chicago 6 January 2012 While a majority of jobs lost during the downturn were in the middle range of wages, a majority of those added during the recovery have been low paying, according to a new report from the National Employment Law Project.
The disappearance of midwage, midskill jobs is part of a longer-term trend that some refer to as a hollowing out of the work force, though it has probably been accelerated by government layoffs.
Note that the number of employed 55 and over has risen more or less steadily since http://casinoallinjackpot.top/world/betting-world-vacancies-1.html the beginning of the Great Recession, growing by over 4 million, while the number of jobs for all workers has dropped by 8 million and is still down by over 4 million.
In 2000, the share was at a low of 41 percent, before the dot-com bust erased job gains for college graduates in the telecommunications and IT fields.
There were more working in office-related jobs such as receptionist or payroll clerk than in all betting world vacancies professional jobs 163,000 versus 100,000.
More also were employed as cashiers, retail clerks and customer representatives than engineers 125,000 versus 80,000.
Ett av problement med den amerikanska ekonomin är att huspriserna inte vänder uppåt förrän köparna känner att arbetsmarknaden har förbättrats, samtidigt som arbetsmarknaden inte vänder uppåt förrän huspriserna stiger igen så att amerikanarna kan fortsätta att, likt svenskarna, köpa för de pengar de lånar på huset Rolf Englund 3 juni 2011 Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.
Rolf Englund 6 december 2009 Minus 5.
The Not-So-Simple Arithmetic of Fiscal Policy in a Depressed Economy Det här verkar enkelt, men vänta bara till jag har förklarat det Brad DeLong 14 March 2012 While whites have experienced periods of high betting world vacancies during the 1970s, early 1980s, and in the past few years, their highest rates are in the range of the lowest unemployment rates for African Americans in the last 50 years.
Algernon Austin, Economic Policy Institute, February 22, 2012 Thus, for African Americans, the last 50 years have been marked by extremely high unemployment occasionally interrupted by periods of merely high unemployment.
At no point can we say that blacks have experienced a low unemployment rate.
African Americans will not be able to conquer poverty or the many problems that stem from poverty while experiencing high unemployment.
It takes about 125,000 new jobs just to keep up with population growth each month.
That means we created roughly 120,000 jobs that helped bring down the unemployment number.
The US economy has created almost 3 million jobs in the last two years.
That means we only need another 7 million to get back to where we were in 2007 John Mauldin, 4 Februay 2012 Look at the graph of the total numbers of jobs in the country, as of last month.
From Chart US Unemployment The participation rate declined to 63.
There are a total of 12.
CalulatedRisk 3 February 2012 Nästan en fjärdedel av svenska ungdomar under 25 år saknar arbete.
Det är en siffra som placerar Sverige i botten bland länderna i EU, enligt Eurostat.
Problemet delar Sverige med större delen av västvärlden.
Hög arbetslöshet tycks ha blivit ett kroniskt tillstånd, och det gäller inte bara bland unga.
Andreas Cervenka, SvD Näringsliv 9 okt 2011 Undersökningsföretaget Gallups ordförande Jim Clifton menar i en aktuell bok att fler arbetstillfällen är en av mänsklighetens absolut viktigaste framtidsfrågor med kraft att lösa de flesta av våra problem.
Om världen lyckas trolla fram fler bra jobb väntar fred, välstånd och harmoni, om det misslyckas hotar kaos och revolutioner, upplopp och misär, enligt Jim Clifton.
US jobless rate stuck around 9 percent or higher since April 2009.
Ronald Reagan is the only U.
I sådana svåra tider måse väl också staten spara OBS Ironi America added 44 million jobs in the 1980s and '90s, when both parties showed they had learned from past mistakes.
The lessons have been forgotten.
Taylor, WSJ 21 July 2011 This month marks the two-year anniversary of the official start of the recovery from the 2007-09 recession.
But it's a recovery in name only: Real gross domestic product growth has averaged only 2.
The percentage of the working-age population that is actually working has declined since the start of the recovery in sharp contrast to 1983-84.
With unemployment still over 9%, there is an urgent need to change course.
Taylor, a professor of economics at Stanford and a senior fellow at the Hoover Institution, is the author of "Getting Off Track: How Government Actions and Interventions Caused, Prolonged and Worsened the Financial Crisis" Hoover Press, 2009.
The US March employment report was below expectations with only 120,000 payroll jobs added.
This is the percentage of the working age population in the labor force.
The participation rate is well below the 66% to 67% rate that was normal over the last 20 years, although most of the decline is due to demographics.
Det är finanspolitiken, inte räntan, stupid The employment population ratio fell to 58.
U-6, an alternate measure of labor underutilization that includes part time workers and marginally attached workers, increased to 16.
CalculatedRisk 8 July 2011 Specter of Years of Stagnating Wages Haunts the Globe Median male real US earnings have not risen since 1975 Average real Japanese household incomes after taxation fell in the decade to mid-2000s And those in Germany have been falling in the past 10 years.
C A widely forecast year of US take-off is once again in danger of faltering before it happens.
Like a black hole, 25 basis point interest rates suck 2- and 5-year rates down with them, producing shockingly low returns that cannot possibly cope with the higher inflation they produce.
The End of the World, Part 1 Rich Yamarone Bloomberg Chief Economist points out, when GDP year-over-year drops by more than 2%, we have always had a recession.
First is the average duration of unemployment, which has risen to an all-time high.
Even worse, 44% of those unemployed have been so for at least six months, again close to an all-time high.
Just one more chart, which shows how bad things really are.
When Greece defaults there will be a domino effect; you can count on it.
And you could actually see a banking crisis before we get actual sovereign defaults.
Gentle reader, you need to understand that the market does not get it.
Neither in Europe nor in the US.
When someone says the market has already priced in a default, go back and ask them how well the market priced in a crisis in the spring of 2008.
Stall speed Richard Yamarone notes that if year-over-year GDP growth dips below 2%, a recession always follows.
There are several potential sources of a shock coming from the outside the US.
The first is from Europe.
And it is not just Greece.
After Greece is dealt with, the Eurozone must deal with Ireland and Portugal.
And as I noted last week, when Greece defaults, and they will at some point, the contagion to other countries will be quick and severe.
And Spain will be included.
The Italian bank index has been in free fall of late.
Money is flying out of Greek banks.
Indeed, deposits in all the peripheral countries are falling.
It is quite possible we get a credit or banking crisis in Europe before we get a sovereign default crisis.
The reason nominal growth is critical is that it allows a country, company or individual to service their debts with increasing income, allocating a portion to interest expense and another portion to theoretical or practical principal repayment via a sinking fund.
Without the latter, a credit-based economy ultimately devolves into Ponzi finance, and at some point implodes.
Watch nominal GDP growth.
The Stall-Speed Syndrome Collectively, the annual growth rate in the major developed economies averaged a little less than 0.
As the Bank for International Settlements correctly points out, they are still struggling in the aftermath of wrenching balance-sheet recessions.
Europe faces a desperate need to build pan-European institutions to ensure banking and fiscal union, and to address serious competitiveness problems in France and Italy.
The fixation on monetary accommodation leaves slow-growth, balance-sheet-constrained economies stuck at stall speed, increasing the risk of yet another global growth relapse.
Jag tycker det är skriande uppenbart att räntan världen över är för låg och att en större del av stimulanserna borde ske via finanspolitiken.
Unemployment tends to rise when GDP growth falls below about 2.
In the US, unemployment tends to rise when GDP growth falls below about 2.
Much like Joseph Stiglitz The U.
Something has gone badly wrong in the American labour market in recent years.
Once the envy of the developed world, US unemployment has risen much more sharply than in other economies since 2008, and this has come after a prolonged period in which the number of jobs in the economy has been considerably less responsive to GDP growth than used to be the case.
So what has changed?
El-Erian, ProjectSyndicate, 2011-05-01 Mohamed A.
El-Erian is CEO and co-CIO of PIMCO, and author of.
The chart shows US real median household income since 1967 Real median income will not have grown for almost 14 years Can You Say Jobless Recovery?
The biggest dangers lie in an area that politicians barely mention: the labour market.
The Economist print April 28th 2011 The recent decline in the jobless rate has been misleading, the result of a surprisingly small growth in the workforce as discouraged workers drop out as much as fast job creation.
The weakness of the recovery is mostly to blame, but there are signs that America may be developing a distinctly European disease: structural unemployment.
Youth unemployment is especially high, and joblessness among the young leaves lasting scars.
Strong productivity growth has been achieved partly through the elimination of many mid-skilled jobs.
And what makes this all the more worrying is that, below the radar screen, America had employment problems long before the recession, particularly for lesser-skilled men.
The economy gained a mere 54,000 jobs in the month The unemployment rate worsened to 9.
Here is a repeat of the graph showing the US participation rate, unemployment rate, and employment-to-population ratio.
Paul Krugman 29 May 2011 Instead of a determination to do something about the ongoing suffering and economic waste, one sees a proliferation of excuses for inaction, garbed in the language of wisdom and responsibility.
The Keynesian side of this debate has been well served, with frequent outstanding contributions from Paul Krugman, Brad DeLong and others.
But I have had more trouble finding serious economic contributions from the classical school, even though they seem to be gaining ground in political and policy circles on both sides of the Atlantic.
Three years after we entered the worst economic slump since the 1930s, a strange and disturbing thing has happened to our political discourse: Washington has lost interest in the unemployed.
There are almost five times as many unemployed workers as there are job openings; the average unemployed worker has been jobless for 37 weeks, a post-World Betting world vacancies II record.
Payroll employment is still 7.
And that doesn't include population growth All western governments face severe difficulties in the years ahead House prices have fallen and interest rates are low, but in Britain a mortgage of three times earnings will not buy a home on the edge of a provincial city for even a relatively high-income family on say, £60,000 a year.
Non-farm payrolls increased 103,000, below economists' expectations for 175,000.
The unemployment rate fell to 9.
As job growth picks up, these workers could re-enter the labor force, keeping upward pressure on the jobless rate.
The number of unemployed Americans rose to 15.
Bloomberg Dec 3, 2010 The number of unemployed Americans rose to 15.
Mike Pence, a Republican from Indiana "The Fed can print money, but they can't print jobs," "Printing money is no substitute for sound fiscal policy Suppose that the U.
Even with pretty good growth, are unemployment rates that not long ago would have been considered catastrophic — because they are.
Behind those dry statistics lies a vast landscape of suffering and broken dreams.
And the arithmetic says that the suffering will continue as far as the eye can see.
Lawmakers must act by Nov.
After exhausting state benefits, these workers would be left to fend for themselves in a job market with just one job opening for every five unemployed workers and an unemployment rate that has exceeded nine percent for 17 months in a row.
Rolf Englund: Men jag har läst att lägre a-kassa minskar utanförskapet.
Vad skall man tro?
At the current rate of job creation, the nation would need nine more years to recapture the jobs lost during the recession.
Median house prices have dropped 20 percent since 2005.
Given an inflation rate of about 2 percent — a common forecast — it would take 13 years for housing prices to climb back to their peak, according to Allen L.
Sinai, chief global economist at the consulting firm Decision Economics.
Commercial vacancies are soaring, and it could take a decade to absorb the excess in many of the largest cities.
The government currently estimates that 2.
But it is still the second largest downward adjustment in nearly 20 years.
The key to the rise in the broader unemployment rate was due to a 612,000 jump in the number of people employed part time but who would prefer full-time work.
In most rich countries they cut hours more than bodies.
German firms last year reduced working time by the equivalent of 1.
The Economist Oct 7th 2010 At its best, then, the American labour market does not dispose of its workers; it recycles them.
Sadly, the market is now far from its best.
For every 100 people unemployed in the autumn of 2009, only 24 had escaped their predicament within a month, an historic low.
The harder it is to escape joblessness, the longer people remain unemployed; and the longer they remain unemployed, the harder they find it to escape.
Of course it is obvious.
But the important thing is to understand its importance.
Tobin's q She is just 57.
But four years after losing her job she cannot, in her darkest moments, escape a nagging thought: she may never work again.
New York Times 20 sep 2010 Long-term unemployment It is unprecedented in post-World War II U.
Ambrose Evans-Pritchard, 13 Sept 2010 A joint IMF-ILO report said 30m jobs had been lost since the crisis, three quarters in richer economies.
Global unemployment has reached 210m.
High and long-lasting unemployment represents a risk to the stability of existing democracies," it said.
The Challenges of Growth, Employment and Social Cohesion The number of Americans who have been out of work for more than 6 months now stands at 6.
Gavyn Davies, FT blog September 3, 2010 As Martin Wolf points out in his FT column this week, the clock is ticking.
European experience in the 1980s and 1990s clearly suggests that long-term unemployment tends to leak more and more into structural unemployment as time passes, because these workers effectively become irrelevant to the active labour market.
Is America facing an increase in structural unemployment?
When an economy experiences a severe recession associated with a sharp decline in aggregate demand, we should not begin by asking whether structural unemployment is the problem.
Instead, we should first try to see how much of the unemployment can be explained by nominal shocks.
Structural unemployment is a sort of residual; it represents those long-term unemployed that would be without jobs even if aggregate demand was on target.
Helping the long-term jobless in a prolonged recession is generally a bipartisan issue, but this time, Republicans argued that the measure will add too much to the national debt.
Heidi Shierholz, Washington Post, July 25, 2010 It's a discussion that gets bogged down in myths about how to assist the long-term unemployed, and the economy, at the same time.
His answer was breathtaking: The number of unemployed Americans fell by 350,000 - and the unemployment rate fell to 9.
But consider that this was mainly due to a reduction in the civilian labour force of 652,000 workers.
FT blog Moneysupply July 2, 2010 Basically, many of those Americans who started searching for jobs in the Spring, hoping that the tide was turning in their favour, are now discouraged again.
That loss of confidence is surely the ugliest part of this report Mats Svegfors har i sin betraktelse 98-03-14 i SvD förundrats över att det är så gott om jobb i USA och så ont om jobb i Sverige.
Svegfors äldsta dotter har nämligen haft en utbytesstudent från USA hos sig.
Den unga damen har förundrats över att det är så ont om jobb i Sverige, medan det är så gott om jobb i USA.
Heidi Shierholz, an economist at the Economic Policy Institute in Washington, estimates about 2.
That is on top of the 15.
New York Betting world vacancies, 4 Jun 2010 GDP report: Sharp slowdown in economic growth Revised sharply lower to an annual growth rate of 1.
The important question is whether growth is fast enough to bring down sky-high unemployment.
We need about 2.
Yet growth is currently running somewhere between 1 and 2 percent, with a good chance that it will slow even further in the months ahead.
All of this is obvious.
Yet policy makers are in denial.
Paul Krugman, New York Times, August 26, 2010 Nobel Prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz The U.
Economy Lost 216,000 Jobs in August after falling by a revised 276,000 in July and 463,000 in June.
Total loss of jobs since the recession began in December 2007 - 6.
RGE Monitor 2009-09-07 Remember, it takes 150,000 jobs per month or so simply to maintain the employment rate, due to growth in the population.
John Mauldin's Weekly E-Letter February 8, 2008 Many of the jobs lost during the recession are not coming back.
For the last two years, the weak economy has provided an opportunity for employers to do what they would have done anyway: dismiss millions of people — like file clerks, ticket agents and autoworkers — who were displaced by technological advances and international trade.
New York Times 13 May 2010 The phasing out of these positions might have been accomplished through less painful means like attrition, buyouts or more incremental layoffs.
But because of the recession, winter came early.
Since the start of the Great Recession in December 2007, the U.
The Great Recession has accelerated a structural shift in the economy that had been slowly building for years.
The Betting world vacancies Job Numbers for September 263,000 more jobs lost in September, and unemployment now at 9.
Remember that the economy needs about 125,000 new jobs every month just to keep up with a growing population.
Meredith Whitney an Optimist?
There Has to Be a Catch CNBC 21 Mar 2011 The notion that she finds anything positive in her outlook is striking, considering her history both recent — — and not as recent.
Whitney is the godmother of the financial crisis, having issued beforehand a now-famous report saying Citigroup was in huge trouble because of all the toxic financial junk corroding its financial picture.
The crisis launched her career as a rock-star analyst, and her proclamations now garner huge attention.
Meredith Whitney says unemployment will rise again So, retail sales are up.
And the Dow is near 11,000.
That doesn't mean that all is right with the world.
CNN Money April 8, 2010 The analyst who brought down the bank stocks in 2007—by shining the light on their capital shortfalls—came by Fortune's offices Wednesday afternoon to explain why she's still a bear.
I asked her: Will unemployment, now at 9.
Meredith Whitney Nearing Retirement and Betting world vacancies or Underemployed One of the groups seriously impacted by the great recession is the "pre retirement" generation - currently the "Baby Boomers" - the workers between the ages of 45 and 64.
Federal Reserve chairman Ben Bernanke: "Indeed, more than 40 percent of the unemployed have been out of work six months or more, nearly double the share of a year ago," CNN February 24, 2010 The economy shed 36,000 jobs last month With the latest monthly tally, 8.
New York Times editorial March 5, 2010 To fill that hole, while keeping up with a growing work force, would require more than 400,000 new jobs a month for three years Employers are unlikely to make new hires until they restore current workers to full time.
In the private sector, just restoring hours cut during the recession will be like adding 2.
The unemployment rate for teenagers remains at 26.
Seventeen states, along with the District of Columbia, still have jobless rates well in the double digits, and the fate of the long-term unemployed is terrifying.
That number—the worst since the Great Depression—shows no signs of subsiding.
Unemployment had not yet skyrocketed, but workers put up with stagnant wage growth.
At the level of the early 80s.
A very nice graph shows the employment-population ratio; this is the ratio of employed Americans to the adult population.
Calculated Risk 5 March 2010 The Labor Force Participation Rate increased slightly to 64.
This is at the level of the early 80s.
The US unemployment rate fell unexpectedly from 10 percent to 9.
Tim Iacono 2010-02-05 "USA har ryckt åt sig ett stort försprång och har världens mest framgångsrika ekonomi" U.
CNBC 5 Feb 2010 The US long-term unemployed now make up roughly 40% of all unemployed.
That's more than six million people BBC 5 February 2010 Take the problem of long-term unemployment.
In the eyes of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, which does the counting, the long-term unemployed are people who have been unemployed for more than six months.
They now make up roughly 40% of all unemployed.
That's more than six million people who have been out work since last summer at least.
Unemployment is always nasty.
But it's even worse when it's accompanied not just by stress and anxiety but by real deprivation.
That is the experience of increasing numbers of Americans as unemployment benefits run out before the next job can be found.
Whether they're "unemployed," "marginally attached" or "discouraged," they're all still suffering in what President Obama's economic advisor Larry Summers recently called the "human recession".
And while their lack of a job may not be counted in the headline numbers, come the November mid-term elections, their votes will be.
Står USA inför en revolutionär situation?
Kommentar av RE: Ja, jag är väl för tidigt ute, som vanligt.
The curse of long-term unemployment Only about 400,000 more Americans were employed in December 2009 than in December 1999, while the population grew by nearly 30m.
The Economist print Jan 14th 2010 Around four in every ten of the unemployed—some 6m Americans—have been out of work for 27 weeks or more.
That is the highest rate since this particular record began, in 1948.
Unemployment in the eurozone 10 per cent for the first time since the introduction of the single currency.
The number of discouraged workers, those not looking for work because they believe none is available, climbed to 929,000 last month, the most since records began in 1994.
En väntad nedgång i USA blir märkbar också i svensk ekonomi.
Svårare är att få arbetsgivare att anställa fler, utöver vad de ändå hade gjort Lösgör den ekonomiska politiken från EMU-reglernas tvångströja Det sista momentet i det ändamålsenliga programmet mot arbetslösheten gäller den makroekonomiska politikens utformning.
Restriktiv ekonomisk politik och därav betingad begränsning i totalefterfrågan utgör en bidragande orsak till arbetslösheten i Västeuropa under 1990-talet.
Det råder förstås delade uppfattningar om graden av restriktivitet i de ekonomiskt-politiska åtgärderna.
Mellan 1992 och 1995 redovisar EU-länderna ett genomsnittligt offentligt budgetunderskott på 5,7 procent av BNP IMF, 1996.
Med traditionella keynesianska mått utgör detta en utomordentligt kraftfull stimulans för efterfrågan i makroekonomin.
Budgetunderskottet är ohållbart stort och måste minskas, för att förhindra en explosion av statsskulderna.
Ekonomiska stimulanser från finanspolitiken blir därför möjliga enbart genom omstrukturering av offentliga inkomster och utgifter, inte genom att man ökar budgetunderskottet.
Följaktligen är det främst lättnader i den otvetydigt restriktiva penningpolitiken som är genomförbara.
De önskvärda effekterna av återhållsamhet i penningpolitiken måste vägas mot den ytterligare arbetslöshet som sådan sådan politik skapar.
Insiktsfulla bedömare, särskilt från andra sidan Atlanten, Dornbusch, 1994; Krugman, 1996anser att Västeuropas regeringar blivit alltför trollbundna av EMU-kraven, och att den höga arbetslösheten motiverar mera expansiva åtgärder på det penningpolitiska området, nu när inflationen fallit till efterkrigstidens lägsta nivå.
Jag delar denna uppfattning.
De tidigare diskuterade åtgärderna i programmet är i själva verket en förutsättning för att det ska gåp att släppa loss den ekonomiska politiken i expansiv riktning, utan risk för inflation.
Med en flexibelt fungerande arbetsmarknad minskar denna risk betydligt.

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